Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite the lack of economic data being released. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 29 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, but we will still see a small increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to noticeable weakness in bonds late yesterday.

Th e bond markets fell during late trading yesterday after the 30-year Bond auction was met with lackluster demand from investors. This led to afternoon selling in bonds and some mortgage lenders to revise rates higher late yesterday. Just how much of a difference in this morning's rates will be seen depends if your lender revised higher yesterday. Overall, I am expecting to see rates move higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Accordingly, there is nothing to indicate that we could see the bond market give up this morning's gains. Because of this, I am shifting to a float recommendation across the board, at least temporarily. Next week's data is not of much concern to me with only a couple of important reports due out.

The first relevant report of the week doesn't come until Wednesday morning when we will see January's Retail Sales figures. This c ould mean that today's buying in bonds may carry into early next week. But, look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened up sharply following weaker than expected economic news and early stock losses. The major stock indexes are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 134 points and the Nasdaq down 22 points. The bond market is currently up 30/32, which with yesterday's late rally should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .625 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Today's economic news was quite favorable to the bond markets and mortgage rates. Believe it or not though, neither of the reports were considered to be of high importance to the markets. Therefore, the reaction to the data is somewhat of a pleasant surprise. The first was initial revision to the 4th Quarter GDP reading. Analysts were expecting to see an upward revision of 0.2% from the previous estimate of a 0.6% annual rate of growth. However, today's release showed no change in the reading, keeping it at 0.6%. This means that the economy grew at a slower pace than many had thought. That is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The Labor Department gave us today's second release in its weekly unemployment claims data. They said that 373,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts of 350,000 by a wide margin. This supports theories that the employment sector is weakening, easing wage inflation concerns and pointing towards further economic slowing.

Mr. Bernanke spoke to the Senate Banking Committee this morning, but didn't say anything much different than yesterday. I don't believe that his words are having much of an impact on this morning's bond rally.

Tomorrow brings us the release of two relevant reports. The first is January's Personal Income ad Outlays data, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.2% while spending is expected to rise 0.2%. Large r increases would be bad news for the bond market and could drive mortgage rates higher. Smaller than expected increases should help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

The last piece of data scheduled for release this week is the University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. Current forecasts show this index revising slightly higher than previously thought. The preliminary reading was 69.6 and is now expected to stand at 70.0, indicating that consumer sentiment was stronger than previously thought. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence.

Wednesday's bond market opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are currently showing gains with the Dow up 45points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Both of today's economic reports showed weaker than expected readings. January's Durable Goods Orders fell 5.3% when it was expected to fall 4.0%. Today's release also revealed a downward revision to December's orders of 0.8%. This means that new orders for big-ticket items were weaker than expected in December and January. This is good news for bonds because it points towards slowing economic conditions that ease inflation concerns.

The second report of the day was one of the least important of the week. January's New Home Sales report showed a 2.8% drop in sales of newly constructed homes. This was a larger decline than the 0.8% that was expected. However, because this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market, it has not had much of an impact on today's mortgage rates.

In this morning's Congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Bernanke, he renewed concerns about a slowing economy but also warned that inflation is still a significant threat. He also said that the employment and housing sectors could see further weakness. The inflation concern is a problem for bonds- generally speaking. But the other comments about employment, housing and overall economic activity were actually favorable to bonds and mortgage rates. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see further improvements in mortgage rates later today and tomorrow. Accordingly, I have shifted to a float recommendation for all periods.

Mr. Bernanke will be speaking to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow morning, but is not expected to say anything different than today. Any sign ificant reaction in the markets tomorrow will likely come from an answer given to a specific question to him.

The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is also scheduled for tomrorow morning. Analysts' forecasts currently call for a 0.8% reading, indicating that the economy was a little stronger in the last quarter of the year than initially thought. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market.

This week brings us the release of eight pieces of economic data for the bond market to digest. Two of them are considered to be low importance, but we do have data being posted every day of the week. This makes it likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage rates the next five days.

January's Existing Home Sales report will be posted late tomorrow morning. This is one of the lesser important reports of the week, along with Wednesday's New Home Sales report. They measure housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually do not have a significant impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

The first big report will be released early Tuesday morning when we will see the Labor Department's Producer Price Index (PPI) for January. It measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the report that analysts watch- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core dat a is more important to market participants because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. If it shows rapidly rising prices, fears of inflation may rise, hurting bond prices and leading to higher mortgage rates Tuesday morning. However, a smaller than expected increase or better yet a decline in core prices would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. It is expected to show a increase of 0.3% in the overall reading and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

Also Tuesday morning is the release of February's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). This Conference Board index measures consumer confidence in their personal financial situations, giving us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the economy, related data is considered important in terms of gauging economic activity. It is expected to show a decline in confidence from 87.9 in January to 82.5 this month.

The only important data sch eduled for release Wednesday is January's Durable Goods Orders data. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for items expected to last three or more years. A larger drop than the 4.0% that is expected would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. This data is quite volatile from month to month, so large swings are fairly normal.

The first of two revisions to the 4th Quarter GDP reading is scheduled for Thursday morning. Analysts' forecasts currently call for a 0.8% reading, indicating that the economy was a little stronger in the last quarter of the year than initially thought. It will be interesting to see where this figure falls and what its impact on the markets will be. Generally speaking, higher levels of activity are bad news for the bond market.

Friday brings us the release of two relevant reports. The first is January's Personal Income ad Outlays data, which gives us an indication of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Current forecasts call for an increase in income of 0.2% while spending is expected to rise 0.2%. Larger increases would be bad news for the bond market and could drive mortgage rates higher. Smaller than expected increases should help push mortgage rates slightly lower Friday.

The last piece of data scheduled for release this week is the University of Michigan's revision to their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February. Current forecasts show this index revising slightly higher than previously thought. The preliminary reading was 69.6 and is now expected to stand at 70.0, indicating that consumer sentiment was stronger than previously thought. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence.

Overall, look for plenty of movement in bond prices and mortgage rates this week. I think we will see the most mov ement either Tuesday or Wednesday, but several of the week's reports can cause movement in rates. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional.

Friday's bond has opened up slightly due to early losses in stocks. The stock markets are down with the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. I am expecting to see a relatively calm day in bonds and mortgage rates, unless the stock markets move much higher or lower than current levels. As for mortgage rates, I am shifting to a lock recommendation for immediate term periods until we get to next week's data.

Next week brings us the release of several more pieces of economic data than we did this week. We have a wide range of data coming, including housing and manufacturing sector releases, the CPI's sister index for inflation readings in the PPI along with spending and consumer confidence readings to name a few. There is data scheduled for release every day of the week.

The week kicks off with January's Existing Home Sales data late Monday morning. It is the only news scheduled for release Monday, which will likely make it the least important day of the week. Look for more details on next week's event sin Sunday's weekly preview.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are starting the week off fairly strong with the Dow up 86 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently down 14/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher than Friday's rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of two of this week's relevant reports in addition to a third news event. The Labor Department will release January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 AM ET, which measures inflationary pressures at the very important consumer level of the economy. With exception to maybe the Employment report, the CPI is the most important report that we see each month. Its results can have a huge impact on the financial markets, especially long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds. It is expected to show a 0.3% increase in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the more important core data. If we see weaker than expected readings, bond prices should rise and mortgage rates would likely fall.

The second report of the day is January's Housing Starts. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. However, it isn't considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage pricing. It likely will not affect rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

Tomorrow afternoon also brings us the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Traders will be looking for any indication of the Fed's next move regarding monetary policy. They will be released at 2:00 PM ET, therefore, any reaction will come during afternoon trading.

The third and final relevant economic data of the week is the Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for January late Thursday morning. This Conference Board report attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a 0.1% decline, meaning that economic activity may slow slightly in the near future. A larger than expected drop would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Overall, the most important day of the week is obviously tomorrow with the release of the CPI and the Fed minutes. It is the results of tomorrow's news and data that will likely determine of rates move higher or lower for the week.

Friday's bond market opened in positive territory following weaker than expected economic news and early stock losses. The stock markets are in negative ground with the Dow down 74 points and the Nasdaq down 22 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will still see a noticeable increase in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of weakness late yesterday. Today's rates will likely be approximately -250 of a discount point higher than yesterday's morning rates.

January's Industrial Production data was the first of today's two reports. It showed a 0.1% increase in output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This was expected and ha snot had much of an impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was more favorable to bonds. January's preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed a reading of 69.6 that was well below forecasts of 76.5. This means that surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situation than analysts had thought. That is good news for bonds because slowing confidence usually translates into less spending by consumers and eases inflation concerns in the market.

Next week is fairly light in terms of economic releases with only one important report and the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There a re a couple of additional monthly reports scheduled, but they are of much less importance to the bond market and mortgage rates. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following some early stock weakness. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 49 points and the Nasdaq up a single point. The bond market is currently up11/32, but we will likely still see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates as a result of weakness in bonds late Friday.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today or tomorrow. There are only four pieces of economic data scheduled to be posted the rest of the week along with an after-hours congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The first report comes early Wednesday morning with the release of January's Retail Sales report. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched quite closely. If Wednesday's report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall. However, a stronger reading than the 0.3% decline that is forecasted could lead to higher mortgage rates.

The week's least important data is December's Goods and Services Trade Balance report early Thursday morning. This report measures the U.S. trade deficit and can affect the value of the U.S. dollar versus other currencie s, but it usually does not cause enough movement in bond prices to affect mortgage rates.

Mr. Bernanke will deliver the Fed's semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy late Thursday afternoon. He will be speaking to the Senate Banking Committee and market participants will watch his words very closely. The Fed Chairman is required to deliver this testimony twice a year, which is considered to be of extreme importance to the financial markets. We almost always see the markets move as a result of what he says during this testimony, but this time is being done after market hours. If he indicates that inflation is still a concern, the bond market will likely fall mortgage rates will rise early Friday as a result. But, if he says that inflation remains under control, we should see the markets rally and mortgage rates fall Friday.

Overall, look for Wednesday or Friday to be the most important days of the week. The Retail Sales report is a biggie and Mr. B ernanke's after-hours testimony Thursday is also very important to bonds and mortgage rates. This means that we are most likely to see the most movement in mortgage rates Wednesday or Friday. Throw in an early close Friday ahead of Monday's President's Day holiday, and we have the makings for an interesting week for bond traders and mortgage shoppers. Please proceed cautiously and maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked an interest rate yet.

Friday's bond market has opened flat following the release of quite mixed economic news. The stock markets are posting very modest gains with the Dow up 22 points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which probably is not enough to improve this morning's mortgage rates.

The Labor Department reported early this morning that the U.S. unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% last month and that 17,000 jobs were lost during the month. The drop in the unemployment rate was not expected, so we can consider that a negative for bonds. However, the report was expected to show that 70,000 jobs were added, therefore, the 17,000 decline is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. But, I believe that an upward revision to November's payrolls of 64,000 jobs has prevented a more favorable reaction in bonds.

In another piece of good news, the average hourly earnings portion of the report rose only 0.2% when forecasts were calling for a 0.3% rise. This is good news because it eases some wage inflation concerns. Still, not enough to lead to a sizable bond rally.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) posted their manufacturing index late this morning, saying that the index rose to 50.7. Not only was the higher than expected reading bad news for bonds, but the fact that it rose above the benchmark 5 0.0 also hurt. A reading above that benchmark means more surveyed manufacturers felt business improved than those who said that it had not. The sub-50.0 level is a recessionary indicator and was considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates for the short time it was there.

The last report of the week was the revised reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. It was revised higher from the preliminary reading of 48.4 to stand at 50.7. This was the least important of today's three releases and has not had much of an impact on trading or mortgage pricing.

Next week is fairly light in terms of economic reports for the markets to digest, especially when compared to this week's calendar. December's Factory Orders will kick the week off Monday morning, but it is considered to be of moderate importance to the markets. Look for more details on next week's event sin Sunday's weekly preview.