Monday's bond market has opened flat as investors await this week's economic news and events. The stock markets are following suit with the Dow down a few points and the Nasdaq up 1 point. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from Friday's close, so we should see little change in this morning's mortgage rates.

This week is packed with relevant pieces of economic news in addition to another FOMC meeting. All seven of the reports are considered to be at least moderately important while several are considered very important to the markets and mortgage rates. This makes it likely that we will see plenty of movement in mortgage pricing over the next several days.

The first report comes late tomorrow morning when the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for April will be released. This Conference Board index is a key indicator of future spending by consumers. The group surveys 5000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial si tuations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to continue to spend. However, if they are concerned about issues such as job security and investments, they will probably delay making large purchases. The latter is better for the bond market and mortgage rates because the expected slowdown in spending would ease inflation concerns. But, a sizable increase could hurt the bond market, pushing mortgage rates higher Tuesday. It is expected to show a reading of 61.0, which would be a decline from March's 64.5 reading.

Wednesday brings us the release of two important reports along with the FOMC meeting results. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect t his report to cause major movement in the financial markets Wednesday and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see output at an annual rate of 0.4%. A smaller increase would be ideal for mortgage rates a sit would fuel recession concerns. But, a larger increase would almost certainly cause inflation concerns in the bond market that would push mortgage rates higher Wednesday morning.

The next report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.8%.

This week's FOMC meeting will begin tomorrow but will not adjourn until Wednesday afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of another rate cut to key short term interest rates. Just how much of a reduction is open for debate. Look for another round of volatility following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.

Overall, look for plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Wednesday or Friday will likely be the most important day of the week with the GDP and Employment numbers being posted along with the FOMC adjournment, but we may see noticeable changes to rates tomorrow also. If this week's reports reveal weaker than expected economic conditions, the bond market should rally and mortgage rates should fall significantly for the week.

Wednesday's bond market has opened up slightly after this morning's economic data failed to give us any surprises. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 98 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates close to yesterday's levels.

Today's big report was the initial reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed that the economy grew at a 0.6% annual pace. This was slightly stronger than expected, but not enough to create concern in bonds. Offsetting that reading was a key inflation reading in the data that came in lower than expected. The result was this report having little impact on today's bond market or mortgage rates.

The second report posted this morning was the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. It revealed a 0.7% increase that was slightly weaker than expected. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, traders seem to be waiting for this afternoon's events before making any adjustments to their holdings.

This week's FOMC meeting will adjourn 2:15 PM ET this afternoon. It is expected to yield a quarter point cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming the Fed does make that move, the post meeting statement will be watched closely for any indication of the Fed's next move, or a lack of one. There is some debate about whether the Fed will continue to cut rates or if they will go into a holding pattern due to concern about inflation.

I suspect that the post meeting statement is going to have some verbiage about inflation that will cause concern in the bond market. Accordingly, I am shifting to a lock recommendation for immediate and short-term periods. But, if this is a false alarm, I will be shifting back to a float recommendation this afternoon. Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have a chance to react to the FOMC meeting results.

Friday's bond market has opened well into negative territory following early stock strength. Stocks are rallying in to the weekend with the Dow up 230 points and the Nasdaq up 60 points. The bond market is currently down 20/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release today, so the likelihood of bonds reacting to stock movements was fairly high. This means that the rally in the major stock indexes translates into bad news for mortgage shoppers this morning. The stock rally has caused investors to sell bond holdings, leading to this morning's losses and mortgage rate increases.

Next week is very light in terms of economic releases scheduled to be posted. There are only three factual reports on the agenda along with a couple of Treasury auctions that sometimes influence bond trading. The first report is not scheduled for release until Wednesday morning, meaning stocks will likely be a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates the first part of the week.

Look for more details on next week's data and events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Friday's bond market opened well in positive territory following early stock market losses and weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing weakness after disappointing earnings news from GE that has fueled concern about the impact that the slowing economy is going to have on corporate earnings. The Dow is currently showing a 146 point loss while the Nasdaq has fallen 31 points. The bond market is currently up 22/32, however, we likely will see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The only relevant economic data on tap today was the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment. It revealed a reading of 63.2 that was well below forecasts and indicates that consumer sentiment about their own financial situations is still falling. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because waning confidence usually means consumers are less apt to make large purchases in the near f uture. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S economy, any signs of slowing spending eases inflation concerns and makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive investors.

Next week is very busy in terms of relevant economic releases for the markets to digest. The week kicks off with Monday's release of March's Retail Sales data. This is a very important piece of data because it tracks consumer spending at retail level establishments. As with the consumer confidence related indexes, any data related to consumer spending is watched closely and can have a noticeable impact on bond trading and mortgage rates.

Monday's data is not the only important news of the week. We will also see two very important inflation related indexes the middle part of the week and a couple of less important reports as the week progresses. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

This week brings us the release of only two relevant economic reports in addition to the minutes from the last FOMC meeting and a Treasury auction. Both of the relevant reports are scheduled for release late in the week, so the most movement in rates may come the latter part of the week.

There is nothing of relevance on tap for tomorrow. There is no relevant news scheduled until Tuesday afternoon when the FOMC minutes will be released. Market participants are interested in how divided the Fed is towards rate cuts and possible future moves. The minutes give us insight to their current thought process and individual Fed member opinions. Any surprises in the 2:00 PM ET release could cause afternoon volatility in the markets Tuesday and possible changes in mortgage pricing.

The first piece of monthly data is February's Goods and Service Trade Balance report Thursday morning. This data gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but unless it varies g reatly from forecasts, it likely will not cause much movement in mortgage rates.

There is a 10 year Treasury Inflation Protected Security (TIPS) sale Thursday. We could see some weakness in bonds ahead of the sale as investing firms sell current holdings to prepare for it. This weakness is usually only temporary if the sales are met with a decent demand. The results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the demand from investors was strong, the bond market could rally during afternoon trading, leading to lower mortgage rates. If the sales were met with a poor demand, the afternoon weakness may cause upward revisions to mortgage pricing Thursday afternoon.

The second and final release of the week is the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment at 9:45 AM ET Friday. Their consumer sentiment index will give us an indication of consumer confidence, which hints at consumers' willingness to spend. If confidence is rising, consumers are mor e apt to make large purchases. But, if they are growing more concerned of their personal financial situations, they probably will delay making that large purchase. This influences future consumer spending data and can have a moderate impact on the financial markets. Good news would be a decline from March's 69.5 reading. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of approximately 68.0.

Overall, I am proceeding into this week very cautiously. There are several variables that could make this week very quiet or quite rocky for mortgage shoppers. Tuesday's FOMC minutes could very well be a major market mover or a complete non-factor. Same goes for Thursday's auction. The truth is, the only day that I believe it is safe to say that we will see movement in rates is Friday as a result of the data being posted. Until then, please proceed carefully if still floating an interest rate.

Tuesday's bond market has opened down sharply following significant stock gains. The Dow and Nasdaq are both rallying with gains of 243 points and 46 points respectively. The bond market is currently down 34/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 - .500 of a discount point.

Helping to fuel this morning's stock rally and bond selling was a stronger than expected reading from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). They reported that their manufacturing index rose slightly to 48.6 last month when it was expected to fall from February's level. This index gives us an important measurement of manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives, meaning that sentiment not only was stronger than expected but was higher than it was in February. That could mean that manufacturing activity may be rising and that would be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

February's Factory Orders will be pos ted early tomorrow morning. This data is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, except that this report includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Unless it varies greatly from forecasts of a 0.8% decline, I suspect that it will be a non-event in the mortgage market.

The other important report of the week will be posted Friday morning. The Labor Department will release March's Employment report, giving us the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added to the economy. This is an extremely important report to the financial and mortgage markets. It is expected to show an increase in the unemployment rate from February's 4.8% to 5.0% and that approximately 50,000 payrolls were lost during the month.

I expected to see the most movement in rates either today or Friday. Friday can be considered the most important day of the week with the employment numbers being released, but this morning's data did fuel a noticeable move in mortgage rates as predicted. If we see weaker than expected results in Friday's data, we can easily recover this morning's losses in rates. However, stronger than expected figures will most likely lead to another jump in mortgage pricing Friday.