Monday's bond market has opened up slightly despite early stock gains. The stock markets are kicking the week off in positive territory with the Dow up 75 points and the Nasdaq up 19 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely see a slight increase in rates as a result of weakness late Friday.

The week's first piece of data is April's Retail Sales report early tomorrow morning. This is an extremely important report for the financial markets as it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this data can have a pretty significant impact on the markets. Current forecasts are calling for a drop in sales of 0.2% from March to April. A weaker than expected level of sales should push bond prices higher and mortgage rates lower tomorrow. However, a larger increase could fuel bond selling and lead to higher mortgage rates.

Wednesday's only relevant report is April's Consumer Price Inde x (CPI). It is similar to next week's PPI report, but measures inflationary pressures at the more important consumer level of the economy. Its results will be watched closely and can lead to significant volatility in the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are calling for increases of 0.3% and 0.2% respectively in the overall index and the core data readings. The core data is the more important of the two since it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

Overall, it likely will be a moderately active week for mortgage rates. Besides the week's important economic news, look for the stock markets to be a major influence on trading. I suspect we will see a fair amount of volatility in stocks, which should affect bond prices. Significant stock weakness should translate into bond gains and lower mortgage rates. However, if the major stock indexes rally, we could see mortgage rates move higher as a result.

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory after this morning's economic news failed to bring any negative surprises. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 15 points and the Nasdaq up 13 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .375 of a discount point.

There were two pieces of economic data released this morning. The first was April's Personal Income and Outlays data that showed personal income and spending both rose 0.2% last month. Forecasts were calling for an increase of 0.2% in both readings, indicating that consumer spending and their ability to spend rose modestly.

The second report of the day came from the University of Michigan who updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for May. Today's revision revealed a reading of 59.8 that was up slightly from the earlier estimate of 59.5. This means that consumer sentiment was slightl y stronger this month than previously thought, but not enough to have much of an impact on bonds or mortgage pricing.

Even with this morning's gains, I still believe they overall tone in the bond market is more negative than positive. This will likely lead to not only volatility in bonds but also possibly intra-day changes to mortgage rates. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

Next week is busy with several important economic releases scheduled for the markets to digest. It begins with Monday's release of May's ISM manufacturing index and ends with Friday's posting of May's Employment report. It will likely be another active week in the mortgage market, but look for details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Monday's bond market has opened fairly flat after this morning's economic news failed to show any significant surprises. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 35 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 1/32, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates at Friday's levels.

The Conference Board gave us this morning's data with the release of April's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI). They reported an increase of 0.1% compared to forecasts of no change, indicating that the economy may grow slightly more than was expected over the next few months. This data is considered to be moderately important and did not have much influence on today's mortgage rates.

April's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released early tomorrow morning. This index helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. If this report reveals weaker than expected readings, we should see the bond and stock markets rally. The overall index is expected to show an increase of 0.4%, while the core data that excludes food and energy prices is expected to rise 0.2%. A smaller than expected increase in the core data would be ideal for mortgage shoppers.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday, but we will get to see the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Market participants will be looking for how Fed members voted during the last meeting and any comments about inflation concerns in the economy. The goal is to form a guess about what the Fed's next move will be. The minutes will be released at 2:00 PM ET, so if there is a market reaction to them it will be evident during afternoon trading.

Overall, it may be an interesting week for mortgage rates. We could see little movement in rates if the stock markets remain calm and the week's data doesn't reveal any major surprises. Tuesday's PPI report is the single most important data o f the week, but the FOMC minutes may also lead to some volatility in the markets. Also worth noting is an early close in the bond market Friday afternoon ahead of the Memorial Day Holiday Monday. These early closes sometimes lead to additional volatility bond prices as investors prepare for the long weekend and trading thins with many traders starting the weekend early.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory even with little news to influence trading. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 35 points and the Nasdaq up a couple of points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. In fact there is little data scheduled to be posted this week. The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early tomorrow morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could raise inflation concerns that cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Wednesday morning. It is expected to show a 1.5% increase in productivity .

March's Goods and Services Trade Balance report will be released early Friday morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit but likely will not have much of an impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing. It is the least important of this week's data.

In addition to this week's economic data, we also have Treasury auctions that can influence bond trading and affect mortgage rates. The Treasury will hold a 10-year Note sale tomorrow and 30 Year Bond sale Thursday. Results of the auctions will be posted at 1:30 PM ET. If they were met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise enough during afternoon trading to cause downward revisions to mortgage rates. However, lackluster bidding could lead to higher mortgage pricing those afternoons.

Friday's bond market has opened down sharply following the release of stronger than expected employment figures. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 66 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently down 23/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department brought us today's big news with the release of April's Employment report. They said that the unemployment rate fell to 5.0% when it was expected to rise to 5.2%. The payrolls number was also bad news for bonds with a 20,000 job decline compared to the forecasted 75,000 drop. Those readings indicate that the employment sector may not be as bad as many had thought. This has hurt bond prices and led to this morning's increase in mortgage rates.

In a bit of good news though, the average hourly earnings portion of the report showed a 0.1% increase in earnings. This was well bel ow the 0.3% that was expected and should ease some concerns about wage inflation. Unfortunately, the other two headline numbers are influencing trading the most this morning.

March's Factory Orders data was also released this morning. It showed a 1.4% increase in orders that greatly exceeded forecasts of a 0.2% rise. Also worth noting was a 0.4% upward revision to February's orders. This means that combined orders for durable and non-durable goods exceeded what analysts had thought. While this is a negative for bonds, it has not had much of an influence on mortgage rates this morning as the employment figures are the driving force behind today's losses.

Next week is fairly light in terms of economic releases. There is a moderately important piece of news scheduled for release Monday in the ISM Services Index. If it varies greatly from forecasts it could influence mortgage rates. However, it likely will have little impact on rates. Look for detai ls on the rest of next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.