Tuesday's bond market has opened flat despite weaker than expected economic news and early stock losses. The stock markets are in negative territory with the Dow down 45 points and the Nasdaq down 3 points. The bond market is currently nearly unchanged from yesterday's closing levels, which should keep this morning's mortgage rates unchanged.

The Confe rence Board said this morning that their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for October fell to 95.6. This was much lower than was expected and indicates that consumers felt much less confident in their own financial situations than many had thought. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it means that consumer spending is likely to slow in the near future. However, with the importance of tomorrow's economic data and FOMC meeting, the reaction to this news has been rather subdued.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The GDP is considered to be the benchmark measurement of economic growth because it is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and is likely to have a major impact on the financial markets and mortgage pricing. There are three versions of this report, each a month apart. Tomorrow's release is the first and usually has the biggest impact on the mark ets. Current forecasts call for an increase of approximately 3.1% in the GDP. I think we need to see a smaller increase for the bond market to rally and mortgage rates to drop. Just matching the estimate will probably bring a stock market rally and could cause mortgage rates to rise.

The second report of the day will be the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. Rapidly rising costs raises wage inflation concerns and may hurt bond prices. It is expected to show an increase in costs of 0.9%. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The FOMC meeting is a two-day meeting that began today and will adjourn tomorrow afternoon. It is expected to bring another rate cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming this does happen, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move. While it is widely expected that the Fed will cuts rates at this meeting, there is a lot of different opinions of when the following cut will come, if at all. The meeting will adjourn at 2:00 PMET, so look for quite a bit of volatility in the markets and possibly mortgage pricing during afternoon hours.

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory after this morning's GDP report showed a much stronger reading than was expected. The stock markets are showing early gains with the Dow up 50 points and the Nasdaq up 12 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today's release of the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 3.9% annual pace of economic growth, exceeding forecasts of a 3.1% rate. This means that economic activity was moderately stronger than expected. However, offsetting that was good news in the key inflation reading within the report. It showed a significantly lower reading than was expected, indicating inflationary pressures were well under control. This is very good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but many traders are waiting for today's FOMC meeting before making any major moves.

Also posted this morning was the 3rd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for salaries and benefits. It showed a 0.8% that was slightly lower than forecasts. This can also be taken as good news for bonds and mortgage pricing because it eases wage inflation concerns.

The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET this afternoon. It is expected to bring a nother rate cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming this does happen, traders will be looking at the post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move.

Look for an update to this report once the markets have had an opportunity to react to the FOMC meeting results.

Tuesday's bond market has opened fairly flat as investors wait for this week's little economic news. The stock markets are showing gains after yesterday's rebound from early losses to close in positive territory. The Dow is currently up 49 points while the Nasdaq has gained 20 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely keep this morning' s mortgage rates at yesterday's levels.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The first report is September's Existing Home Sales late tomorrow morning. This report gives us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It is expected to show another decline in home resales, meaning the housing sector continues to weaken. This would generally be good news for bonds, but this data is not considered to be of high importance to the bond market or mortgage rates. Accordingly, unless we see a sizable variance from forecasts, the report will likely not greatly affect mortgage rates tomorrow.

Thursday morning, the Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September. This is the week's most important data. It gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.5%. If we see a larger than expected rise in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond prices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

Also Thursday are weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department and New Home Sales from the Commerce Department. Neither are considered to be very important since the unemployment numbers track only a week's worth of claims and the home sales report covers only approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S. The Durable Goods Orders data will be the biggest influence on bonds and mortgage rates Thursday morning.

The Treasury auction is also Thursday, when 5-year Notes will be sold. This will help gauge investor interest in bonds and could lead to a bond rally or selling. Results of these sales are posted at 1:00 PM ET, so any impact on trading and mortgage rates will come during afternoon hours. If investor demand was strong, we should see bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower. However, a lackluster interest from investors could lead to high mortgage rates Thursday afternoon.

There are four pieces of data scheduled for release this week that may affect mortgage rates along with a Treasury auction. Only one of the four is considered to be of high importance to the markets, so I am expecting the stock markets to again play a significant role in bonds swings and changes to mortgage rates. With no relevant news scheduled for release to morrow or Tuesday, we will likely see the bond market remain fairly calm, unless the stock markets post sizable gains or losses.

The first report is September's Existing Home Sales that will be posted at 10:00 AM ET Wednesday. September's New Home Sales data will be posted Thursday morning. These reports give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. I don't see them having much of an influence on the bond market or mortgage rates, but a reading that varies greatly from analysts' forecasts could lead to a slight change in mortgage pricing.

At 8:30 AM ET Thursday, the Commerce Department will post Durable Goods Orders for September. This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Analysts are currently calling for an increase in new orders of approximately 1.5%. If we see a larger than expected rise in orders, mortgage rates will probably rise as bond pr ices fall. A weaker than expected reading should be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but this data can be quite volatile from month to month and is difficult to forecast.

The week's last report comes at 10:00 AM ET Friday when the University of Michigan updates their Index of Consumer Sentiment for this month. Current forecasts show this index rising slightly from this month's preliminary reading of 82.0. This index is important because it helps us measure consumer confidence, which is believed to indicate consumers' willingness to spend. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is considered to be important.

Overall, this is going to be a moderately busy week in the financial and mortgage markets. There is not a great deal of economic news scheduled for release in the week, so the stock markets and investor appetite for stocks compared to safety of bonds will likely be the biggest influence on mortga ge rates. The Treasury auction is Thursday, when 5-year Notes will be sold. This will help gauge investor interest in bonds and could lead to a bond rally or selling.

Friday's bond market has opened well in positive territory following early significant weakness in stocks. The stock markets are posting sharp losses with the Dow down 204 points and the Nasdaq down 37 points. The bond market is currently up 23/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterda y's morning rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The selling in stocks is a result of corporate earnings news, more credit fears and oil prices that remain above $90 per barrel. That selling has made bonds more attractive to investors as they seek safe-haven from the volatility. The result is bond prices rising and mortgage rates moving lower.

There is a fairly decent chance of seeing further improvements in today's mortgage pricing. Accordingly, you may want to avoid locking an interest rate this morning if closing in the next week or so. We could very well see another .125 - .250 of a discount point improvement in rates later today if stocks continue to slide.

Next week brings us the release of only a few pieces of economic news and it begins in the middle part of the week. There is no relevant data scheduled for release Monday or Tuesday, so expect the stock markets to be the biggest force behind changes to mo rtgage rates, at least until we get to the factual data. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory, continuing yesterday's late momentum. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 30 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by .250 - .375 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

Y esterday afternoon's release of the Fed Beige Book showed noticeable slowing in economic growth in most regions. This data is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings, therefore, the bond market rallied during afternoon trading. The reasoning behind it is that there is more likelihood of another rate cut when the Fed meets next.

The Conference Board posted September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) late this morning, showing a rise of 0.3%. That matched forecasts, but the release also revised last month's reading from a decline of 0.6% to a drop of 0.8%. That can be considered good news for bonds also, but has not had much of an impact on bond trading or mortgage rates today.

The Labor Department gave us last week's unemployment claims, revealing that 337,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was much higher than expected, but since it tracks only a single week's worth of claims, it has not influenced mortgage pricing this m orning.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow. Look for the stock markets to be the biggest force behind changes to mortgage rates. There is a full calendar of quarterly earnings releases scheduled today, so any surprises from big name companies could lead to sizable gains or losses in stocks. That may lead to a bond rally or weakness, and therefore, changes to mortgage pricing.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks show another round of losses. The stock markets are again posting early weakness with the Dow down 91 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

September's Industrial Production report was released mid-morning today, revealing a 0.1% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This matched forecasts and has not had much of an impact on the markets this morning.

Tomorrow brings us three events to watch. The first is September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:40 AM ET. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.2% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also scheduled for release is September's Housing Starts. It is the week's least important piece of data and us ually doesn't have much of an impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. It does give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a sizable decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates.

The Fed Beige Book will be released tomorrow afternoon. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If the 2:00 PM ET release reveals stronger signs of inflation and economic activity from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher during afternoon trading.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory as stocks show another round of losses. The stock markets are again posting early weakness with the Dow down 91 points and the Nasdaq down 17 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

September's Industrial Production report was released mid-morning today, revealing a 0.1% rise in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. This matched forecasts and has not had much of an impact on the markets this morning.

Tomorrow brings us three events to watch. The first is September's Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:40 AM ET. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports that the bond market gets each month. Analysts are expecting to see a rise of 0.2% in the overall index and an increase of 0.2% in the core data reading. A larger than expected increase in the core reading could raise inflation concerns in the bond market and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow. However, a smaller than expected reading should ease inflation concerns and lead to lower mortgage rates tomorrow.

Also scheduled for release is September's Housing Starts. It is the week's least important piece of data and us ually doesn't have much of an impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. It does give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but usually is not a mover of mortgage rates. It is expected to show a sizable decline in starts of new homes last month. If it varies greatly from forecasts, we could see the bond market have some reaction to the news, but probably not enough to cause much movement in rates.

The Fed Beige Book will be released tomorrow afternoon. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If the 2:00 PM ET release reveals stronger signs of inflation and economic activity from the last release, we could see mortgage rates revise higher during afternoon trading.

Monday's bond market has opened fairly flat despite sizable stock market losses. The major stock indexes are showing early weakness with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq down 10 points. The bond market is currently down 2/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The rest of the week brings us the release of five economic reports that are of interest to the mortgage market. This week also begins the rush of quarterly earnings releases for companies, which could cause significant movement in the stock markets. The earnings results could affect bond trading as investors move funds into stocks if the reports are good. The other possibility is that the earnings reports would generally disappoint, meaning investors may move funds out of stocks and into bonds as a safe-haven. The latter would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

This first piece of data is September's Industrial Production report that will be released mid-morning tomorrow. It gives us an indication of manufacturing strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to show a 0.1% increase in output from August's level, meaning that manufacturing activity remained improved sl ightly. An increase in output would be negative for bonds and mortgage rates while a decline should help push mortgage rates lower.

Overall, I am expecting to see a fair amount of movement in mortgage rates the next few days. We will likely see more volatility in the stock markets, which may affect bond trading. The key report is Wednesday's CPI data, but we may see movement in rates several days this week. I have extended the Float recommendations to shorter periods also as I think we may see stock weakness lead to bond gains this week.

Tuesday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory as investors wait for today's Fed minutes. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 32 points and the Nasdaq up 4 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which is not enough to improve this morning's mortgage rates.

The first report of the week comes this afternoon when the Fed will release the minutes to the last FOMC meeting. These may be a major mover of the markets or could be a non-factor, depending on what they say. The key will be concerns over inflation and the Fed's next move. If the Fed members were concerned about inflationary pressures, we may see the bond market move lower and mortgage rates higher later today. However, if they indicate a likelihood of another rates cut in the coming months, we should see the bond market rise and mortgage rates drop during afternoon trading.

The first factual economic data of the week will be posted Thursday morning. August's Goods and Services Trade Balance will be released that day, but is not likely to cause much of a change in mortgage pricing. This data is actually the week's least important. It will give us the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually does not lead to significant movement in bond prices or mortgage rates.

Overall, this is going to be an interesting week for the bond market and mortgage rates. The first part of the week will be left to the stock markets and the Fed minutes. Once we get into the economic data, bond traders will have more factual news to trade on rather than emotion from stock market movements. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Retail Sales and PPI reports, but today's Fed minutes may also lead to a fair amount of volatility this afternoon that could carry into tomorrow's trading.

Friday's bond market has opened down sharply following the release of this morning's Employment report. The stock markets are reacting favorably to the news with the Dow up 84 points and the Nasdaq up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 26/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point. Softening the blow to this morning's rates is strength in bonds late yesterday that prevented rates from rising by another .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us this morning's news, saying that the unemployment rate rose to 4.7%, that 110,000 new jobs were added and that average earnings rose 0.4%. The earnings increase was a little higher than expected, which is bad news for bonds because it raises concerns over wage-inflation. The other two headline numbers matched or were close to forecasts.

The bond weakness and stock rally during morning trading is a result of upward revisions to previous months' payrolls numbers. What greatly contributed to the recent bond rally was an unexpected decline in new jobs during August. Today's release revealed an upward revision to a positive 89,000 new jobs during August. This caused the markets to backtrack or unwind the gains that came from the previous announcement of a loss of 4,000 jobs.

Today's data also throws the monetary policy into question again. Some analysts think that the payroll corrections allow the Fed to cut rates again at their next FOMC meeting. I find that to be fairly ironic because it was the job loss number that had many believing the Fed would need to cut rates, which they did by a half-point last month. It is my opinion, that the new payroll numbers take away the need for the Fed to cut rates in the immediate future. But, this will likely be the beginning of plenty of debate until the meeting actually adjourns on October 31st.

As I suspected, the bond market would react negatively to the employment numbers. Now that the data is behind us, we must turn our attention to next week's events. The first is Tuesday's release of the minutes from the September 18th meeting. This will give us more detail on the Fed's thought process around the rate cut they made and possibly help form opinions of what the Fed's next move will be.

The most important factual data comes late next week, with several important reports schedule to be posted. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened slightly in positive territory again following the release of weaker than expected manufacturing data. The stock markets are nearly flat with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we will likely still see a slight increase in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department said late this morning that new orders at U.S. factories fell 3.3% last month. This was a larger drop than was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is weaker than many had thought. This is good news for binds and mortgage rates because slowing economic activity eases inflation concerns and makes long-term investments such as mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

Earlier this morning, the Labor Department said that 317,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, which also can be considered positive news for bonds. However, because it tracks only a week's worth of claims, traders generally don't pay too much attention to its results. This week is especially true with the monthly report coming tomorrow morning.

The Labor Department will also post September's Employment report early tomorrow morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

If we see weaker than expected readings, I expect bond prices to rise and mortgage rates to drop tomorrow morning. But, if the release shows stronger than forecasted readings, particularly in the number of new jobs and average earnings reading, mortgage rates may spike sharply higher tomorrow.

Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings. I am concerned that the jobs number may rebound after last month's surprise decline. Accordingly, I am going into the report cautiously and holding lock recommendations for immediate and short-term periods.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following a weaker than expected manufacturing related report. The stock markets are also showing gains with the Dow up 114 points and the Nasdaq up 22 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

Today's news came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) who said that their manufacturing index for September fell to 52.0. This was lower than expected, indicating that manufacturer sentiment is waning. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it could mean slowing manufacturing activity. That could ease inflation concerns and make mortgage-related bonds more attractive to investors.

The next relevant release doesn't come until Thursday when the Commerce Department will post August's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but includes orders for non-durable goods. It can usually impact the financial markets enough to change mortgage rates if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin. Current forecasts are calling for a decline in new orders of approximately 2.5%. An unexpected rise could drive mortgage rates higher, while a weaker than expected reading should push them lower Thursday.

The Labor Department will post September's Employment report early Friday morning. This report will reveal the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets. The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, falling payrolls and a drop in earnings.

Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates Friday. However, stronger then forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see a slight increase in the unemployment rate to bring it to 4.7%, an increase in new payrolls of approximately 100,000 and a 0.3% increase in earnings.

Overall, look for Friday to be the big day of the week. The bond market will close early Friday ahead of the Columbus Day holiday and will reopen next Tuesday morning. This may create additional volatility in the markets as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.