Tuesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are showing early strength with the Dow up 130 points and the Nasdaq up 35 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will likely see little change from Friday's rates due to strength in bonds late Friday.

Tomorrow morning kicks off this week 's relevant economic news with the release of October's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figures. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for increases of 0.2% in both the overall index core data readings.

October's Retail Sales report will also be released morning. This report is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall, assuming the PPI doesn't show any significant surprises. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in sales of approximately 0.2%.

We will likely see a fair amount of volatility in stocks, bonds and mortgage rates tomorrow, so please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate.

Friday's bond market has opened well into negative territory, continuing its recent roller coaster ride. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 125 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in rates this morning as a result of strength late yesterday.

Today's only relevant data was October's Personal Income and Outlays that showed weaker then expected readings. It revealed that personal income and spending both rose 0.2% last month when income was expected to rise 0.4% and spending 0.3%. This indicates that consumers had less money to spend and actually spent less than was thought. This is favorable news to bonds because slower spending means slower economic growth.

I am expecting the bond market to follow stock trading the remainder of today. Despite the good news from the economic data, bonds have failed to move into positive ground. This is likely due to the stock gains. Therefore, as long as stocks remain near current levels, bonds and mortgage rates will likely follow suit. If the major stock indexes give up this morning's gains, we may see bonds benefit and mortgage rates revise slightly lower later today.

Next week brings us the release of several very important pieces of economic news, beginning with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Index Monday morning. The weeks ends with an even more important report in November's Employment statistics Friday. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Friday's bond market has opened well into negative territory, continuing its recent roller coaster ride. The stock markets are showing gains with the Dow up 125 points and the Nasdaq up 15 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, but we will likely still see a slight improvement in rates this morning as a result of strength late yesterday.

Today's only relevant data was October's Personal Income and Outlays that showed weaker then expected readings. It revealed that personal income and spending both rose 0.2% last month when income was expected to rise 0.4% and spending 0.3%. This indicates that consumers had less money to spend and actually spent less than was thought. This is favorable news to bonds because slower spending means slower economic growth.

I am expecting the bond market to follow stock trading the remainder of today. Despite the good news from the economic data, bonds have failed to move into positive ground. This is likely due to the stock gains. Therefore, as long as stocks remain near current levels, bonds and mortgage rates will likely follow suit. If the major stock indexes give up this morning's gains, we may see bonds benefit and mortgage rates revise slightly lower later today.

Next week brings us the release of several very important pieces of economic news, beginning with the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Index Monday morning. The weeks ends with an even more important report in November's Employment statistics Friday. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened strong after yesterday's sell off pushed the benchmark yield back above 4.00%. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 55 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently up 23/32, which due to yesterday's weakness will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by only approximately .125 o f a discount point.

Today's biggest news was the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. It showed that the economy grew at an annual pace of 4.9% last quarter. This was a sizable upward revision from the previous estimate of 3.9%, but it also matched forecasts. Accordingly, the data has not had much of an impact on mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning were last week's unemployment claims and October's New Home Sales report. Neither are considered to be of high importance to mortgage rates, but are worth noting. The Labor Department said that 352,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, exceeding forecasts of 330,000 claims. The Commerce Department gave us new home sales data, showing that September's sales were revised much lower than previously announced and that October's sales fell short of analysts' forecasts. Both can be considered good news for bonds but neither are important enough to lead to improvemen ts to mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow's only important data is October's Personal Income and Outlays data at 8:30 AM ET. This data is thought to measure consumers' ability to spend and their current spending habits. It is expected to show that income rose 0.4% and that spending rose 0.3%. Smaller than expected readings would be good news for bonds and could lead to improvements in mortgage rates.

Wednesday's bond market has opened well into negative territory again despite weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets are showing strong gains again with the Dow up 175 points while the Nasdaq has gained 58 points. The bond market is currently down 16/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discou nt point.

The Commerce Department said this morning that new orders for big-ticket items fell 0.4% last month when analysts had expected no change from September's levels. This indicates that the manufacturing sector was weaker than expected. Also worth noting is that this was the third consecutive monthly decline in orders. This news is favorable to bonds, but the attention that stocks are getting has prevented a rally in bonds.

October's Existing Home Sales data was also posted this morning. It showed that home resales fell more than forecasted last month. This is generally good news for bonds, but this data usually doesn't have much of an impact on bonds or mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

This afternoon brings us the release of the Fed "Beige" Book. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic activity throughout the U.S. by region. Signs of economic weakness should not come as a surpris e to the markets and probably will not have had much of an impact on rates. But, the Fed does rely heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so any significant surprises could affect afternoon bond trading and possibly lead to changes in mortgage pricing this afternoon.

Tomorrow morning brings us the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP revision is expected to show an upward change from last month's preliminary reading of 3.9%. Current forecasts call for a reading of approximately 4.9%, meaning that there was more economic growth during the third quarter than previously thought. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates, but the current mortgage rates are reflective of the expected revision. If it happens to show a reading of less than 4.9%, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates fall early tomorrow.

Also scheduled for release is October's New Home Sales report, but I don't expe ct it to affect mortgage rates tomorrow.

Tuesday's bond market has opened down sharply, reversing yesterday's major rally that came during late afternoon trading. Today's economic news was weaker than expected, but has failed to stop the selling in bonds and buying in stocks. After closing down 237 points and 55 points respectively yesterday, the Dow and Nasdaq have recovered a good portion of those l osses this morning. The Dow is currently up 168 points while the Nasdaq has gained 36 points. The bond market is currently down 28/32 after closing up 43/32 yesterday. But due to yesterday's rally, I am expecting to see a slight improvement in this morning's rates. However, this will likely be short-lived as bonds continue to slide.

The Conference Board posted November's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning. It showed a much weaker than expected reading, indicating that consumers were much less confident about their own financial situations than was thought. The 87.3 reading that we got was well below the 91.5 that was expected and a far cry from the 95.6 of October. This was the fourth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest reading in almost two years. That is very good news for bonds because it tends to mean that consumers are less likely to spend, helping to slow economic activity. That eases inflationary concerns and raises concerns about corporate profits that in turn make bonds more attractive to investors.

October's Durable Goods Orders will be posted early tomorrow morning. This data helps us measure manufacturing strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items. It is expected to show no change in new orders from September's levels. A decline would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Also scheduled for release tomorrow is October's Existing Home Sales data. This report, along with Thursday's New Home Sales data is the least important of this week's data. They give us a measurement of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand, but the bond market generally does not rely heavily on their results. Both reports will most likely be ignored due to the importance of other releases scheduled to be posted those days.

The other relevant report Wednesday is the Fed "Beige" Book, which will be released at 2:00 PM ET. The report itself probably will not show many surpri ses. It details economic activity throughout the U.S. by region. Signs of economic weakness should not come as a surprise to the markets and probably will not have had much of an impact on rates. But, the Fed does rely heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so any significant surprises could affect afternoon bond trading and possibly lead to changes in mortgage pricing Wednesday afternoon.

Yesterday's late rally in bonds was over exaggerated in my opinion. Today's weakness is really of no surprise considering what went on yesterday. Accordingly, I am shifting to lock recommendations for the short and mid-term periods. Keep in mind though that this does not necessarily mean that I feel rates will rise. It is more like a lake of faith that they will improve much, making the risk of continuing to float not worth the gamble.

Friday's bond market has opened down slightly as the stock markets post strong gains. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 116 points and the Nasdaq up 18 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32, but due to strength late Wednesday, we will likely still see an improvement this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point.
There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. In addition, the bond market will close early today, likely at 2:00 PM ET. Accordingly, I am not expecting to see further changes to mortgage rates today. The stock markets are also expected to close early today, but all markets will reopen for normal trading hours Monday.

Next week is fairly active with economic releases for the markets to digest. We will see readings on consumer sentiment, manufacturing and housing sector strength, consumer spending and income along with the Fed Beige Book and a revised reading to the 3rd Quarter GDP.

The first of the week's data does not come until Tuesday morning. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview. We would also like to take this opportunity to wish you and yours a safe and happy holiday weekend!

Wednesday's bond market has opened strong following early stock weakness and concerns about the economy next year. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow currently down 130 points while the Nasdaq has fallen 35 points. The bond market is currently up 23/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a dis count point.

This morning's economic data has not had much of an impact on today's trading or mortgage rates. Comments made by the Fed late yesterday are influencing this morning's trading much more than the data is. The Fed lowered its economic outlook for next year, which has affected stocks negatively and helped shift funds into bonds. This has pushed the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury Note down to 4.01% and is flirting with the 4.00% threshold. It actually broke that level during overnight trading, which is the first time since September 2005. It will be interesting to see if it will close below 4.00%. Doing so leaves room for further improvements and lower mortgage rates. If not, rates will likely not see much more improvement in the immediate future.

The Conference Board posted its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for October, showing a downward revision to September's reading and a weaker than expected reading for October. The 0.5% decli ne indicates that the economy is expected to slow in the next three to six months. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning was the revised November reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment. It came in at 76.1, which was a little higher than the previous reading of 75.0. However, this news was a non-factor in this morning's trading.

The bond market will close early today ahead of the Thanksgiving Day holiday tomorrow. It will reopen Friday morning, but is expected to close early again Friday.

Friday's bond market has opened up slightly following the release of much weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow up 7 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Today's only relevant news was October's Industrial Production data that showed a surprising decline of 0.5%. This was well below forecasts and indicates that manufacturing activity was much slower than most had thought. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it eases inflation concerns and makes it more likely that the Fed will cut key interest rates again in the near future.

Next week is very light in terms of economic data scheduled for release. There are only a couple reports on the calendar and they are not considered to be of high importance. What is scheduled for next week that could be fairly important is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. This will give us more insight as to the Fed's individual members thoughts about the economy and inflation, possibly helping to form a prediction for the Fed's next move.

There is no data scheduled for release Monday. The first comes Tuesday morning with October's Housing Starts. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened up slightly after this morning's inflation reading didn't reveal any surprises. The stock markets are showing small gains with the Dow up 7 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Labor De partment released October's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early this morning, saying that the overall index rose 0.3% while the core data rose 0.2%. These matched forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures were at expected levels. The lack of a surprise helped ease some inflation fears, but generally speaking the data did not impact bond trading or mortgage rates much.

The Labor Department also said the 339,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than expected, which can be considered good news for bonds. However, the weekly report usually has little influence eon bonds or mortgage rates because it tracks only a week's worth of claims.

The last report of the week comes tomorrow morning when October's Industrial Production data be posted at 9:15 AM This report gives us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is expected to reveal a 0.1% increase. St ronger than expected levels of output could mean that the manufacturing sector is gaining momentum. That would be considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

The bond market is closed today in observance of the Veterans Day holiday. The stock markets are open with the Dow up 72 points and the Nasdaq up 2 points. Many mortgage lenders are closed today also, but those that are open will likely be using Friday's rates until tomorrow morning.

This week brings us the release of four monthly reports for the markets to digest. The first two important pieces of data will come Wednesday morning with the release of October's Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales figures. The PPI measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.

If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are calling for increases of 0.2% in both the overall index core data readings.

October's Retail Sales report is also due out Wednesday morning. This report is very important to the financial markets because it meas ures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. If this report reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates will fall, assuming the PPI doesn't show any significant surprises. Current forecasts are calling for an increase in sales of approximately 0.2%.

Overall, look for Wednesday to be the most important day of the week with the PPI and Retail Sales reports being released. Thursday's CPI may also cause significant movement in the markets and mortgage pricing. I think bonds can improve on the week as long as the PPI and CPI reports do not show much stronger than expected readings. However, I am concernedthat we may see higher readings than expected or stock market gains, therefore I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory due to weaker than expected economic data and another weak opening for stocks. The stocks markets are showing sizable losses again with the Dow currently down 128 points and the Nasdaq down 46 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates slightly.
Today's first piece of economic news revealed that the U.S. trade deficit fell to $56.5 billion in September. This was lower than expected, but since the data is not considered to be a major influence on the bond or mortgage markets, its results have not affected today's mortgage rates.

November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment was posted late this morning. It showed a reading of 75.0, which was well below forecasts of 80.0. This indicates that consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than was expected. That is goods news for bonds and mortgage rates because lower levels of sentiment usually translates into weaker consumer spending.

Next week brings us the release of several important pieces of economic news, including Retail Sales data and two important inflation indexes. There is no relevant data scheduled for release until Wednesday morning, so the stock markets may be the bigg est influence on bonds the first part of the week. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following another round of stock weakness and comments by Fed Chairman Bernanke that hinted further economic weakness. Stocks have opened in negative ground with the Dow currently down 55 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently up 9/32, which will likely improve this morning's mo rtgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There was no relevant economic news released this morning except for weekly unemployment claims from the Labor Department. They said that 317,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week, falling short of the 325,000 that were expected. However, this data is not considered to be of high importance because it tracks only a week's worth of new claims.

Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke before a Congressional Joint Economic Committee this morning and renewed concerns about the credit crisis in the markets that could further slow economic activity. He also referenced high oil prices as an inflation concern, which is bad news for bonds. These words added additional volatility in the markets during early trading.

The final two releases of the week will be posted tomorrow morning. The first is Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is n ot a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities' proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor's domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

November's preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released during late morning trading. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 80.0, down from October's final reading of 80.9.

Wednesday's bond market has opened up only slightly despite sizable stock losses and favorable results from this morning's economic news. The stock markets are well into negative territory with the Dow down 135 points and the Nasdaq down 30 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates close to yesterday's leve ls.

The Labor Department reported this morning that worker productivity rose to a 4.9% annual rate during the 3rd Quarter. This was much higher than was expected, which good news for bonds. Also worth noting about the report was a decline in unit labor costs that eases wage inflation concerns. However, the bond market's reaction to the news has been tempered, preventing an improvement to mortgage pricing.

The early calm in bonds is likely a result of preparing for today's Treasury auction. Today is the first of the week's two relevant auctions with the 10-year Note sale today. The 30-year Bond auction is scheduled for tomorrow. Strong or particularly weak results from these sales could affect the momentum in the bond market and lead to afternoon changes in mortgage rates. Results of today's sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, so look for any reaction to come during afternoon trading.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will be speaking to the Joint Economic Commit tee tomorrow morning at 10:00 AM ET. He will be discussing the U.S. economic outlook, therefore, his words may cause volatility in the markets and possibly mortgage rates.

The final two releases of the week will be posted Friday morning. The first is Goods and Services Trade Balance report. It helps us measure the size of the U.S. trade deficit, but usually is not a major influence on bond trading or mortgage pricing. It does affect the value of the U.S. dollar, which makes U.S. securities more attractive to international investors when the dollar is strong. This is because the securities' proceeds are worth more when sold and converted to the investor's domestic currency. However, its results will not likely directly lead to changes in mortgage rates.

November's preliminary University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment will be released during late morning trading. This index measures consumer confidence, which gives us an indication of consumer willingne ss to spend. It is expected to show a reading of 80.0, down from October's final reading of 80.9.

Monday's bond market has opened flat with no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 60 points and the Nasdaq down 12 points. The bond market is currently unchanged from Friday's close, but we still may see a slight increase from Friday's morning rates.

This week is very light in terms o f economic releases for the markets to digest, especially compared to last week. There are two monthly and one quarterly reports on tap, but only the quarterly one can be considered to be highly important. This makes it quite likely that we will see a fairly quiet week in the mortgage markets, assuming that the stock markets do not repeat last week's volatility.

The first piece of data scheduled for release comes Wednesday morning with the release of the 3rd Quarter Productivity report. The productivity index is expected to show a level of worker productivity during the third quarter similar to last quarter's final reading of 3.1%. This would be good news for the bond market because high levels of productivity helps the economy to expand without inflationary pressures being a concern.

The final two releases of the week will be posted Friday morning. The first is September's Goods and Services Trade Balance report. The second will be November's preliminary Univ ersity of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment during late morning trading. Neither are considered to be major market movers, but with little data being posted this week we may see some movement in rates as a result.

Overall, look for a fairly quiet week in the mortgage market unless something totally unexpected transpires. As long as the stock markets remain fairly calm, I am expecting to see little movement in mortgage rates. However, I am extending the lock recommendation to short and mid term periods. This is not an indication that I necessarily feel mortgage rates will rise. It means that the risk versus reward scale is leaning towards the risk side. If mortgage rates are not likely to improve during that time frame, then there is little reward of continuing to float. Accordingly, a lock recommendation is appropriate in my opinion.

Friday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite the release of stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are currently showing sizable losses with the Dow down 95 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is benefiting from the stock weakness again, currently up 10/32. This should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us today's key data with the release of October's Employment report. It showed that 166,000 new jobs were added, which exceeded forecasts of 80,000 by a wide margin. However, offsetting that news was a downward revision of 14,000 to September's jobs and smaller than expected increases in average hourly earnings for October and September. The unemployment rate remained at 4.7%, as it was expected to do.

September's Factory Orders data was also posted this morning, revealing a 0.2% rise in new orders for both durable and non-durable goods last month. The latest forecasts were calling for a slight decline in orders. However, this data is no important enough to trump the Employment report results and stock fears in the market. Therefore, it has had little impact on this morning's mortgage pricing.

After the very busy week that this was, next week is going to seem very light. There are only a couple of relevant economic reports scheduled for release and they don't start until Wednesday. This will likely mean that the stock markets will again be in the forefront and a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates.

Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview. I am holding the float recommendations through today to capture the expected pricing revisions we may see later today. But, I do expect to shift to a lock recommendation, for at least the immediate term period, early next week. If closing next week, it may be a good idea to lock a rate after this afternoon's pricing is posted.

Thursday's bond market has opened strong following significant stock losses and weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are down sharply with the Dow losing 225 points and the Nasdaq down 42 points. Bonds are reaping the benefits as investors shift funds into safety, driving the bond market up 29/32. However, due to weakness in bonds late yest erday, this morning's mortgage rates may not show much improvement. But, if bonds can hold onto these gains, we should see downward revisions to rates later today.

Today's first report was September's Personal Income and Outlays that showed a 0.4% rise in income and a 0.3% increase in spending. The income reading met forecasts, but the spending portion of the report was slightly weaker than expected. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the second report and stock losses are the major influences on this morning's trading.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that their Manufacturing Index for October fell to 50.9. This was also lower than expected and very close to the important benchmark of 50.0. It is that level that is considered a key indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading below 50.0 means that more surveyed executives felt business worsened in the month than those who felt it had improved, which is bad news for the e conomy and good news for bonds.

Tomorrow brings us the release of one of the most important monthly reports- the Employment report. The Labor Department will post October's employment stats early tomorrow morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of new jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for no change in the unemployment rate of 4.7%, new payrolls up approximately 80,000 and a 0.3% increase in average earnings. The ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 4.7%, a smaller than expected increase in jobs and no increase in the earnings portion.

Also on tap for tomorrow is September's Factory Orders report. This report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release except it includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. It is expected to show 1.0% rise in orders from Au gust's level. A larger increase would be bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates while a much smaller than expected increase is good news. However, with the almighty Employment report being released ahead of it, I doubt this data will affect mortgage rates tomorrow.