Wednesday's bond market has opened relatively flat with no relevant economic news posted this morning and early stock gains. The stock markets are showing modest strength during early trading with the Dow up 46 points and the Nasdaq gaining 10 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .12 5 to .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Today is the first of the four special auctions that the Fed announced last week that are intended to add more liquidity to the markets. However, I don't suspect that the auction will directly affect mortgage rates at all.

Tomorrow brings us two releases with the first being the final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP. I don't think this data will have an impact on mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from its expected reading. Last month's first revision showed that the economy grew at a 4.9% annual pace during the quarter and this month's revision is expected to show the same.

The second report scheduled for release tomorrow is the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for the month of November at 10:00 AM ET. This index attempts to measure economic activity over the next three to six months. It is expected to show a slight decline in activi ty, meaning that it predicts slower economic activity over the next several months. This probably will not have much of an impact on bond prices or affect mortgage rates unless it exceeds current forecasts of a 0.3% decline from October's reading. If it shows a larger decline, the bond market may move slightly higher, improving mortgage rates slightly.

The Labor Department will also give us last week's unemployment figures early tomorrow morning. But since there is other data being released and it tracks only a week's worth of claims, its impact on mortgage pricing tomorrow will likely be very minimal. They are expected to show that 335,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week.

Thursday's bond market opened fairly strong after we saw weaker than expected economic news and early stock losses. The stock markets are showing sizable losses with the Dow down 121 points and the Nasdaq down 26 points. The bond market is currently up 17/32 as investors shift funds back into bonds. However, I am not expecting to see much improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness in bonds late yesterday. This morning's gains are more or less offsetting yesterday's losses, meaning mortgage rates should remain near yesterday's morning levels.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that November's Durable Goods Orders rose 0.1%. This was much lower than the 2.2% increase that was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector was not as strong as thought. This is good news for bonds because weak manufacturing activity translates into slower economic growth.

The Labor Department gave us their weekly reading on unemployment claims, saying that 349,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. That was higher than expected, but this data usually has little impact on rates since it tracks only a week's worth of filings.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December showed a higher reading than was forecasted, meaning consumers were more optimistic about th eir own financial situations this month than many had expected. The 88.6 December reading and the announced upward revision to November's reading shows that consumers were more confident than thought. This is considered bad news for bonds because higher levels of confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future.

The final report of the week comes late tomorrow morning when November's New Home Sales data will be posted. This data is not considered to be of high importance and will likely not affect mortgage rates unless it varies greatly from forecasts. It covers only approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S., therefore, I don't think we will see much movement in rates as a result of this data. It is expected to show a decline in sales from October.

It will likely be another light day of trading tomorrow as market participants prepare for the New Year's holiday early next week. The markets are open for a full day tomo rrow but will close early Monday.

Wednesday's bond market opened down slightly but has since recovered those losses as stocks moved into negative ground. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 31 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but I am not expecting to see much of a change in this morning's mortgage rates.

There is no rel evant economic news scheduled for release today. The first piece of data released this week will be will be posted at 8:30 AM tomorrow when the Commerce Department will give us November's Durable Goods Orders. This data gives us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items or products that are expected to last at least three years. Analysts are expecting the report to show an increase in the neighborhood of 2.2%. A smaller increase would indicate that the manufacturing sector did not grow as quickly as many had thought. This would be good news for the bond market and should drive mortgage rates lower. However, a larger than expected jump in orders could fuel a stock rally and lead to mortgage rates moving higher early tomorrow morning.

Also tomorrow morning is the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for December. This is a pretty important release because it measures consumer willingnes s to spend. If consumers are more confident in their personal financial situations, they are more apt to make large purchases. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely by market participants and can have a significant influence on mortgage rate direction. It is expected to show a small decline from October's level with a reading of 87.0. A higher reading would be considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, trading volume in the markets will likely be light this week. We will probably see the most movement in rates tomorrow, but I don't think we will see significant changes any day of the week. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendation for immediate and short-term periods.

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory following the release of stronger than expected economic news and sizable stock market gains. Stocks are rallying this morning with the Dow up 166 points and the Nasdaq up 33 points. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

November's Personal Income and Outlays report was released early this morning. It showed that personal income rose 0.4% last month. This was slightly lower than the 0.5% that was expected. However, the bad news came in the outlays or spending portion of the report. It revealed a 1.1% jump that was well above forecasts of a 0.7% rise. That means that consumers were spending more than thought and since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, this was bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The second report of the day was the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December that was released late this morning. It showed an upward revision to 75.5. Analysts were expecting no change to the 74.5 reading, meaning that consumer sentiment was stronger than previously estimated. This is also not good news for bonds because stronger confidence is believed to mean that consume rs are more apt to make large purchases in the near future.

The markets are open for a full day of trading today, but will have an early closing time Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday. Next week is a holiday shortened week with only a couple of pieces of data scheduled for release. Look for details on next week's schedule and events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Thursday's bond market has opened in positive territory following the release of some weaker than expected economic news. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 30 points and the Nasdaq up 10 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point over yesterday's morning rates.

The final revision to the 3rd Quarter GDP was today's first release. It showed a reading of 4.9% as was expected and has not influenced bond trading or mortgage rates today. The second report was the Labor Department's posting of last week's unemployment claims. They said that 346,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was an unexpected increase of approximately 12,000 claims. Usually this data does not influence trading much, but did have a minor favorable impact on this morning's due to a lack of highly important news being released.

The last report of the day was the Conference Board's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for November. It revealed a decline of 0.4%, which was a larger than expected drop. That indicates that economic activity may slow during the next three to six months at a little quicker pace than analysts had thought. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

The remaining two reports for the week are scheduled for release tomorrow morning. The first will be will be posted at 8:30 AM when November's Personal Income and Outlays data will be released. It will give us an important measurement of consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data usually has a fairly significant impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for a 0.5% rise in income and a 0.7% increase in spending. If this report reveals smaller than expected increases, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates drop slightly tomorrow.

The second report of the day comes late morning when the revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for December is posted. Current forecasts are calling for no change from the preliminary reading of 74.5. This is important because rising consumer confidence indicates that consumers may be more apt to make large purchas es in the near future. An unexpected upward revision could lead to higher mortgage rates tomorrow.

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are continuing Friday's selling with the Dow down 40 points and the Nasdaq down 19 points. The bond market is currently up 8/32, but due to weakness Friday we will likely see little change in this morning's mortgage pricing.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The rest of week brings us the release of five monthly or quarterly economic reports. None of them are considered to be nearly as important as several of last week's releases were. This leaves other factors such as stock markets movement to influence bond trading and mortgage rates several days this week.

November's Housing Starts report will be released tomorrow morning, but I don't see it causing much movement in mortgage rates. This report, which is expected to show a decline in starts of new homes, gives us an indication of housing sector strength and future mortgage credit demand. But, it can be considered the least important of this week's news.

Overall, look for Friday to be the most important day of the week simply since the single most important report is being released that day. I am not expecting to see nearly as much movement in rates as we did the past two weeks, however, we may see some movement from one day to another. Just how much movement will depend a lot on how calm or active the stock markets are.

Friday's bond market has opened in negative territory again following another round of stronger than expected economic data. The stock markets are also reacting negatively to the news with the Dow down 42 points and the Nasdaq down 2 points. The bond market is currently down 6/32, which with yesterday's further losses during late trading, will likely push this mor ning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

The Labor Department said this morning that November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.8% while the core data reading rose 0.3%. Both of these readings exceeded forecasts, but the variance was minimal compared to yesterday's surprises in the PPI. Still, the higher than expected inflation readings at the consumer level of the economy does brings concern about inflation in the economy. This had led to this morning's selling in bonds.

November's Industrial Production report was also posted, showing a 0.3% rise in output. This was slightly stronger than the 0.2% that was expected and indicates that manufacturing activity was a little stronger than thought, but it has not had much of an impact on this morning's rates.

Next week brings us the release of a handful of reports for the markets to digest. However, none of them are as important as some of this week's data was. The first comes Tuesday but the first one that may affect mortgage rates doesn't come until Thursday. Look for more details on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

Wednesday's bond market has opened down sharply, giving back nearly all of yesterday's gains. The stock markets are rallying today, recovering more than half of yesterday's losses. The Dow is currently up 164 points while the Nasdaq has gained 46 points. The bond market is currently down 46/32, which will erase all of yesterday afternoon's improvements in rates . This will take mortgage pricing back to near yesterday's morning rates.

Today's only economic news was irrelevant to the volatility in the markets. October's Goods and Services Trade Balance was posted this morning, showing a $57.8 billion trade deficit. This was a little larger than expected, but due to its low importance has not affected bond trading or mortgage rates.

This morning's selling in bonds and stock rally are being fueled by news that the Fed is creating four interim auctions during the rest of this month and next month to help inject cash into the financial system. This was met with a good response from stock investors but the additional supply of securities has bond traders selling holdings. The result is bond prices falling and mortgage rates rising today. While the announcement of the auctions does come as a surprise, the rebound in stocks and bond weakness does not. This was the basis of the recommendation of locking at yesterday's or this morning's rates.

The first important data of the week comes early tomorrow morning with the release of November's Retail Sales report. This data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely. Current forecasts call for it to show a 0.6% increase in sales from October's levels. If it reveals weaker than expected sales, the bond market should thrive and mortgage rates should fall as a result. A stronger than expected reading could fuel stock market gains and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

Also tomorrow, the Labor Department will release November's Producer Price Index (PPI). This index measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. There are two portions of the index that are used- the overall reading and the core data reading. The core data is the more important of the two because it e xcludes more volatile food and energy prices. If tomorrow's release reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising, the bond market will probably react negatively and should drive mortgage rates higher. If we see in-line or weaker than expected numbers, the bond market should fair well and mortgage rates should fall. Current forecasts are showing a 1.5% rise in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory as investors await today's FOMC meeting results. The stock markets are mixed with the Dow down 21 points and the Nasdaq up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 12/32, which will likely improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic ne ws scheduled for release today, but this afternoon does brings us the results of today's FOMC meeting. There seems to be a slight consensus that another rate cut is coming today, but with much debate on the size. Some are predicting a quarter point cut while others are calling for a half point. There are still some analysts that think the Fed may wait until early next year before making another move.

The lack of a wide consensus means that we will likely see plenty of movement in the markets regardless of what the Fed does do. The post meeting statement usually has a significant influence on the markets and mortgage rates, but the results of the actual meeting are usually not much of a surprise. Accordingly, this particular meeting may bring more volatility than usual.

The meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today, so look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have had an opportunity to react to its results.

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again following early stock strength and mixed economic news. The stock markets are posting strong gains with the Dow up 101 points while the Nasdaq has gained 33 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The first of today's two releases gave us favorable news when the 3rd Quarter Productivity index was revised significantly higher. It showed that worker output improved at a 6.3% annual pace. This was higher than the 5.8% that was expected and much higher than the previous estimate of 4.9%. This is good news because high levels of productivity allow economic growth without significant inflationary pressures.

The second report of the day was October's Factory Orders that showed a 0.5% increase in new orders. This was a sizable variance from the latest estimates of no change from September. The increase indicates that manufacturing activity may be stronger than some had thought. This was the bad news that helped push bond prices lower.

There is no important news scheduled for release tomorrow. The Labor Department will post November's Employment report early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the mos t important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a slight upward change in the unemployment rate to 4.8%, new payrolls up approximately 70,000 and an increase of 0.3% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 4.8%, a much smaller increase in jobs than is expected and no change in the earnings portion.

The fifth and final report of the week is December's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the employment figures out before this data, I don't expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 75.0, which would be a decline from last month's final reading.

There are five pieces of economic news that may affect mortgage rates this week. All of the relevant news will be released over three days. I expect the stock markets to again be a fairly significant influence on bonds the other days. If we see sizable stock losses, funds may shift into bonds and lead to lower rates. However, stock gains could push bond prices lo wer and mortgage rates higher those days.

November's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will kick off the week's data at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This index measures manufacturer sentiment and can have a considerable impact on the financial markets and mortgage rates. Current forecasts call for a small decline in sentiment from October to November. October's reading was previously announced as 50.9. A weaker reading than the expected 50.5 would be good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. This release will be watched closely because recent declines have brought it very close to the important benchmark of 50.0. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved than those who felt it had worsened. A drop below 50 indicates that more felt business had worsened. That is a recessionary sign and could lead to a sizable rally in bonds and mortgage pricing.

The next piece of data that we need to be concerned with comes Wednesday morning with the release of the revised 3rd Quarter Productivity report. This index is expected to show an upward revision from the preliminary reading of worker productivity. Higher levels of productivity are thought to allow the economy to expand without inflationary pressures rising. This is good news for the bond market because economic growth itself isn't necessarily bad for the bond market. It is the conditions around economic growth, such as inflation that hurt bond prices and mortgage rates. Current forecasts are calling for an annual rate of 5.5%, up from the previous estimate of 4.9%.

The second report of the day is October's Factory Orders. This report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release except that this one includes orders for both durable and non-durable goods. This data usually isn't a major influence on bond trading, but we may see it cause some movement in mortgage rates if it varies greatly from forec asts. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of approximately 0.4%.

Friday also brings us the release of two reports, one of which is arguably the most important monthly report we see. The Labor Department will post November's Employment report early Friday morning. The report is comprised of many statistics and readings, but the most important ones are the unemployment rate, the number of news jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings. Current forecasts call for a slight upward change in the unemployment rate to 4.8%, new payrolls up approximately 75,000 and an increase of 0.3% in average earnings. An ideal scenario for mortgage shoppers would be a higher unemployment rate than 4.8%, a much smaller increase in jobs than is expected and no change in the earnings portion.

The fifth and final report of the week is December's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment Friday morning. This index measures consumer willingness to spend and can usually have enough of an impact on the financial markets to change mortgage rates slightly. However, with the employment figures out before this data, I don't expect it to affect mortgage rates much. It is expected to show a reading of 75.5, which would be a small decline from last month's final reading.

Overall, the most important day of the week is Friday with the employment figures being released, but we may also see movement in rates Monday and Wednesday. The remaining days could be fairly quiet, depending on stock market gains or losses. Friday's data could cause a significant change in rates, but if it reveals stronger than expected results we may see rates spike higher Friday morning. Ahead of the report, we may see pressure in bonds as investors prepare for its release. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for short and intermediate-term periods.